Fact Checking the Arab Media

Throughout August and September, the Lebanese and regional media have been captivated by the prospects of a sea border deal between Israel and Lebanon - two states technically in a state of war. Finalizing the maritime boundary could greatly speed up Lebanon’s exploration of its presumed offshore energy wealth (no commercially viable energy deposits have been found yet in the first wells drilled over the past few years) while accelerating Israel’s own already robust activities in the area.

Of course, even if Lebanon does find hydrocarbons, a number of analysts point out that the country is so badly mismanaged and in such a deep financial and economic hole - with corruption and outright state failure enveloping the tiny country - that any deposits might not ultimately be exploited or put to good use for that matter. As two authors put it sarcastically over the Summer in a briefing by the Beirut-based Triangle Consulting: “Seeing the many risks involved, one could ask oneself, if commercially viable quantities of oil and gas were found, would they not be better off buried under the ocean floor until a next generation of Lebanese has their house better in order than the current one?”

Bucking such cynicism, the Lebanese media outlet Al-Jadeed on August 10 excitedly Tweeted, “According to [our] information: the result of the three-dimensional survey, block No. 5 may be the richest among all blocks, and the black spots confirm the presence of petroleum oil, not just gas.”

Fact Check Assessment: True

Al-Jadeed is fairly cautious in its characterization of the Lebanese government’s prospecting map, employing the word “may” when alluding to the possibility that Block 5 in particular might prove to be a rich reserve of hydrocarbons. They are more definitive in saying that “the black spots [on the map] confirm the presence of petroleum oil, not just gas [emphasis added].” In this, however, the Lebanese news outlet is also correct. The mapping done by the government which they refer to shows the presence of oil. How much oil and whether the amounts are commercially viable is decidedly not elaborated on. As Wissam Shbat and others at the state Petroleum Administration argued in an October 2019 journal article, “Stratochem’s 3D modeling, coupled with more than 200 HC oil seeps observed across the North Levant basin on synthetic aperture radar images, indicate that this basin is also generating oil at present.” As one of the leading 3-D companies in the field, Dome Energy, acknowledges, however, although “3D seismic imaging doesn’t eliminate 100% of the exploration and drilling risk, it definitely improves success rates and productive wells.”

While not perfect then, 3-D imaging technology has already apparently assisted the Lebanese government in at least identifying some oil deposits - whether these deposits will actually bring revenues and redress to a battered Lebanese population is another matter entirely.